Carlisle Football Playoff Chances
Class 4A, District 5 · 5-0 (1-0 district) · Updated Sep 26, 2026
Make playoffs97%
Projected record8-1
Win district22%
Host first game48%
Reach UNI-Dome9%
Win state<1%
Carlisle (5-0) is projected to finish 8-1 and makes the Class 4A playoffs in 97% of 20,000 simulated seasons, most likely finishing 2nd in District 5 (wins it 22%). Its most likely first playoff game: at #6 North Polk. Chance to reach the UNI-Dome semifinals: 9%; to win the Class 4A state title: <1%.
Open the interactive Class 4A playoff machine for Carlisle →Remaining schedule and picks
| Week | Opponent | Our pick | Chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs Gilbert | Carlisle | 71% | Lean |
| Wk 7 | at Bondurant-Farrar | Carlisle | 86% | Strong |
| Wk 8 | vs North Polk | North Polk | 70% | Lean |
| Wk 9 | vs Ballard | Carlisle | 63% | Lean |
Lock picks (90%+) were right 97% of the time on Iowa games from 2021 to 2025.
District 5 standings outlook
| Team | Overall | District | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Polk | 3-2 | 0-1 | 31% | 37% | 22% | 10% | 98% |
| Ballard | 3-2 | 1-0 | 39% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 70% |
| Carlisle | 5-0 | 1-0 | 22% | 30% | 28% | 15% | 97% |
| Gilbert | 4-1 | 1-0 | 8% | 12% | 32% | 48% | 48% |
| Bondurant-Farrar | 0-5 | 0-1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 8% | <1% |
| Des Moines North | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Chance of each district finish. Ties go by head-to-head, then the 17-point tiebreaker.
Other Class 4A teams
- ADM
- Ballard
- Bondurant-Farrar
- Boone
- Burlington
- Cedar Rapids Washington
- Clear Creek Amana
- Clinton
- Council Bluffs Jefferson
- Davenport North
- Davenport West
- Decorah
- Denison-Schleswig
- Des Moines North
- Fort Dodge
- Gilbert
- Glenwood
- Grinnell
- Le Mars
- Lewis Central
- Marion
- Mason City
- Newton
- North Polk
- North Scott
- Oskaloosa
- Pella
- Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- Sioux City West
- Spencer
- Storm Lake
- Waterloo East
- Waverly-Shell Rock
- Western Dubuque
- Xavier